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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 9, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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jones today. we head over to melissa lee, and what are you making of it? >> well, thank you, kelly. and talking about the big drop in crude oil which is in its own bear level since summer levels and we have an expert and you don't believe where he is headed next by november in fact. >> all right. over to you guys. >> all right. "fast money" starts right now, and live from the nasdaq marketsite life in times square, i'm melissa lee. and now the today, closing out all of the gains yesterday and closing out in the lowest levels in three months. and also ahead, we will have one underperforming internet stock that could be a safety play, and we will look at the ebola treatments, and separate the fact from the fiction, and of course, we start with the return of the volatility, and the s&p 500 is moving 1% in three straight days and more than a year that has happened and the volatile si rising 24%. dan nathan, how do you decipher
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it? >> well, the thing is that the close is up 18 in the vix, but we have seen the assets and the risk assets moving all over the world, and the equities in other lands and even in europe, and so to me, it is all of the sudden come can back to our shores. the s&p 500 has been a safe haven, because the rates are so low for so long, and the thing is that the rates are lower right now, but i don't believe that the equities have to go up with the prices lower, but the fed tipped the hand, because i believe they are more worried about the global growth. and here is the thing, if you are buying the u.s. equities, because you believe that the rates are low, and going lower, that is the wrong reason, because global growth is going lower. >> and that is not the reason, because we have known for three years that the global growth is in question, and the fed is the e elixir to the global economy, so what is the difference? >> well wally tell you that the equity markets are not responding to the lower rates
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and this morning we saw europe and japan and companies with record low yields and the japanese ponds are yielding 0.84%, and they u are doing the massive qe over there. >> and on a relative basis that has existed for months now. >> right. and the difference is the stocks. the stock markets are going down. so overnight we had japan down, and we had germany down, and france down, and that is the difference in this one, and that is why this time, b.k. is a little bit more worried about the dip not being bought. >> and that is a interesting thing that at the end of the day, it is going to be bought. >> and this is the third time that elixir is being used. >> technically. >> the market has done everything right, and bounced off of the steve grasso level, and the 1970 level traded up there and failed monday and yesterday traded up there exactly, and obviously failed today. i think that the 1904 level is in play, and great job by tim on friday to use the strength in
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the russell to sell into it. i think that the level of three is in the wtifm, and i think that 103 in the wio -- >> and this is what you flagged also? >> yes. that is what we are trading to. >> and bounce off is what you said. >> yes, and i think that we will through the first round and we have not tested through november of 2012 and so a lot of time to dance near it, and it is momentous, and you have options expert next week and a lot of people are painting the analogs the much, much scarier times and it is interesting how the market reminded us of the time and it is almost pinned to the close, and if you had to look at the intraday, we had to break through the 1926 level of yesterday, which we did not, and so i don't know that tomorrow has to be awful, but that is where i believe we are headed. >> and we are only 4% off of the all-time high, and with all of this said with the test of the moving average of 1904 to 1920-ish, how do you trade the
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cards tomorrow? >> well, for bulls tomorrow, wake up, and the s&p is down ten handles, because then you will be looking for the reversal. if the s&p futures rup, that is a problem. so in the short term that is how you trade it, but the 1900 is a formidable level. >> well sh, today is a bad day the markets no doubt about it, but orderly though, and no panic there. and there is no reason to panic. i agree with tim if we get back to the 200-day moving average, it is a natural level of sup por, and likely pauses there unless there is an external event, and if you are long and strong and think that the environment is good for equities, you'd almost like to see a test of the 1900 and a little fear, and then you buy the names or the add to the names that you are most convicted on. >> and really, we had good earnings out today, and we will talk about them, but maybe it is not the direction that the earnings of the stocks are going to go higher and pepsi is a name, and you know, the jobless claims out today, and i think
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that i have been consistent ob this, and the u.s. economy is not doing that poorly and jobless claims at 2006 levels, and claims at 2006 levels and the wages are stagnant, but to say it is awful, and we have good earnings, and telegraphed that we know that the -- >> well, the russell 2000, and if everything was so great, the markets, and my point is that the market is more concerned about the global growth than u.s. growth, and that is evidenced in the fact that the russell cannot hold a bid. >> and stocks here, the 10-year treasury holding a yield year to date, and today, leon couperman fired a warning for the bond market. >> greater risk in the bond market or the stock market? >> i would say une kwquivocally the bond market, because when the world straightens it out, it will be seeing the government bond from 2.3 to 4% or 5% and if you look at the numbers, it is a capital loss and playing with dynamite. >> playing with dynamite is strong words, guy adami?
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>> well, yeah, but a few months ago, he could have said the same thing and all he had to do was to change the 2.6%, and the r e rates are going to be going lower, because we are in a global deflationary environment, and so we talked about the yield overseas, and why is it so unreasonable to believe that the 10-year can't trade under 2? i am in that camp. >> and in the mid-90s in japan, you could have said the same thing, and short iing the bonds has killed many, many macro players and so we are in that environment. and to his credit lee cooperman said, if the u.s. bonds aret a 2% or 3%, it is a problem for the markets. he did not say complete blowup here. >> and the stock, and this is where if you look and go into the fourth quarter, high-dividend paying stocks growing 3% or 4%, and let's use pepsi, because it is a stock through the moon, but they are
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going to be growing organically 3%, and this is at a time when the company is paying a 3% dividend yeel. i agree with the guys, and kudos to guy who has been banging the table saying the yield is going lower. and that is what going to happen, it is going to flatten, and it is not necessarily an awful thing, and we do stay in the range. >> and one area of the market wrecked today, is the energy stocks. underperform ing t underperforming the markets and falling more than 3%, and crude plunging to below $84 a barrel for the first time since 2012, and let's bring in the president anthony gra zahny of e&r trading. >> well sh, it is simply supplyd demand. the demand from here in the u.s., and the gasoline demand has lagged all summer long, and so it is really all about that, and right now, you have the
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geopolitical concerns on the sidelines which has added a $5 or $10 to the market. >> we have an opec meeting in december, and what to expect? >> i thought that they would not be worried about cutting the production at all, but they can't go into the meeting with any other objective than to cut the projection. i was looking at 500,000 barrels, but with the movement i think that we can go to $78 in crude oil and cut maybe a million and more than that. >> and 78 in with wti, because the levels were 2011 and 2012 and beyond that, where is the next stop or is that it? is. >> i don't know, but i know six weeks ago we were trading to $95 and i said we will go to $85, but i think that we will take a shot at $78, and i did cover half of the position, because opec could come out before the meeting at the end of november, and we have a window here between here and then that the prices could go lower, but they could say we are going to be cutting the production, but you
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could see the market trade down to $70. >> anthony, that is the question, you are in the pits all day, and you are trading it, and at what point do the pricers put in a opec cut or that the shale plays won't make money, and you will get the production cuts there. >> that is a good point, because it is a natural production cut can, because they will shut down the wells. and that is on the radar, and we have been talking about it as traders in the pit, that saudi arabia will be cutting the prices, and not production and defending the market share and not the price, but after the move today, they have to be worried about the prices. >> yes, at what level a naturally occurring production cut on the part of producers? >> well w as far as the shale plays go, it is 70 to the $75, and below, that it is not profitable to produce that oil. >> anthony, thank you. and grz, anthony grasanti. >> and i tend to look at brent,
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and this is to me the global grade, and we are going to getting down to the long-term averages to $89 and we have not been there for multiple year, and this is not a bad number for the integrated to do trading. and every part of the incremental, and additional marginal dollar of the oil is taxed away from the guys. so go back to exxon and some of the integrated names to me that are well spread across the space, and paying a decent energy dividend, and if you look at the the energy stocks in a lower interest rate environment, they do well, and people don't see that, and after they have been beaten over the last few months that is how i would lean. >> so ignore the pain today in the stocks? >> well, yeah. i am long xle, and it has been a painful trade, and the reason i asked anthony the question is that at some point you will get the pricing and whether it is a opec production cut, and certainly saudi arabia threw some cold water on that or the wells are going to be shutdown, and people are going to price it in and if you look at where we
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are, this is the place they will do it. >> and the prices and i made a bullish bet, and the -- no, the price action is hard to the ignore, and i have seen this dramatic decline chevron going from the all-time highs and down 15% right now, and the bet would be to press it down to the 52-week lows in february. i closed the position, because i don't want to see the thing ts s that are coming apart at the seams, and with some sectors this is happening, i did a bunch of the charting today, i was astou astounded to find how many charts have gone from the 52-week highs to 52-week lows and that is bad pricing action and you don't want to pick the bottoms there. >> and last night, we were talk the i thing about the 10% dividend scaring me, and down 4.5% today, and the big volume, and the intraearnings 11 weeks away, and that new low could be interesting in the rally there. >> and we have a new david iron horn position, and we go to the
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newsroom with don. >> david iron horn has been reporting a stake of insideo which is cities and towns around drilling, and if you want to house wosrkers you hire civeo t provide housing for the workers, and david iron horn saying that they should replace bradley dodson who has lost the support of the company shareholders, and iron horn continues to discuss the structural alternatives with the directors and the shareholders and this is a company that at the end of september dropped by nearly half of the vol value after plans to become an real estate investment or reit, and most of the operations in the u.s., canada, and australia, and again the
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civeo shares are at almost 10% stake by david einhorn. >> and the back of the shale pl play. >> and obviously tshg man camps are out there. >> well, i would not say it is a shell game, because he can go in there to agitate for the reit again, and i think that you are safe here and going along with david einhorn, but it is not a referendum on the shale plays. >> and four ways to play defense with the portfolio amid all of the volatility, and apple staying in the green despite the sell-off, and is this becoming a safety play, and one traderr says a ticking time bomb in the market that could blow up very soon with names of pepsi and ibm at risk, and find out what it is next. smart sarah. seeking guidance. just like with your investments. that sets you apart. it does? it does. you're type e*. and seeking another perspective is what type e*s do.
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take a look at symantec in to a afterhour sessions. plans to split into two publicly traded companies and if p it sounds familiar, it is. listen to what dan ives had to say about symantec on monday's "fast money." >> well, the storage building has really been the overhang here, and we could see them
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getting rid of that and selling off the private equity and that is what the investors want to see here that they focus on the s cyber security opportunity, and again, four ceos in five year, and definitely, there needs to be something done here. >> and i want to go to guy adami on the trade, because you have liked symantec for a bit. >> yes, and when they split up the ebay, and turned out to be right, and the same for hewlett packard to fade. and it seems that the cyber business is worth more than the current stock indicates. it is bad palo alto stocks badly, so maybe they need this to get the stock, and so i like the news. >> and billionaire investor carl icahn wrote a letter to tim cook, and requested share buybacks, and icahn defended the position to dday on the "halfti report." >> irs foft all i asked him if he believed the same as a year
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ago that it is undervalued, and he said yes. after that, i said, you know, it is really, this should be done, and it is a trendily conversati conversation, and it always is with tim, and obviously, he was noncommittal, and he has to be, but as an old poker player, i put all of the chips into the pot concerning the fact that they will do this buyback. >> and let's bring in security research analyst alex ghana. and thanks for being with us. >> thanks for having me. >> does it matter? >> no, it is innovation for app apple. it is right for icahn to put the attention on the shareholder friendliness, and apple has proven itself to be shareholder friendl friendly, and tim cook needs to make sure that the company has a growth road map going forward and the growth scenarios put forward in the open letter are nonsensical, and what we know of the product pipeline at this
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point in time, but i think that it does raise the issue of apple focusing on being shareholder friendly, and that commitment and execution at the same time. >> and to the point of execution, aleck, we have heard of the reports saying that the iwatch is delayed on the larger ipad which was originally produced for december is delayed into next year, and that foxfire is having trouble hiring people, and that is why it is going to be delayed to keep up with the demand of iphone 6.0, and that is your thought of why it is not going to be operating on all cylinders going into the holiday seas season? >> yes, melissa. that is one of the points that they would disagree with icahn on it. and the apple watch missing the holiday season, and the 6.0 and the 6.0-plus should have been o outier, and apple has been late, a and they left millions on the table. and so what you should be aware of second apple supplier announced today, the g.t.
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advance on the sapphire front, and noles who made the phones for apple preannounced before the close today as well. >> and so what is carl icahn and the team seeing as far as their ability to forecast out growth that looks like 20 or 30% over the next few years in both earnings, and sales that the sale side is missing? just that? they go in there and use $100 million to buy back the stocks is that $200 billion value? it is a disconnect of the analysts on the one side, and carl icahn on the other side? >> well, it looked like grandstanding to us. and there was no new substance that we didn't know about, and nothing to back up the sensationalist claims of growth. and so jmp believes it is undervalued and just not to that degree laid out in the letter. >> alex, we will leave it there thank you. alex gauna of jmp securities.
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>> of course, and i'm not coming at dan here with this, but i can't on this one, because the point is that carl is clearly saying 203 and this is where the guys should be adding value to and putting the stock at 19 times multiple, and that is absurd. i am long on apple, and i believe there is value there, but it should trade at 14, and i believe that apple has more than one game plan here, and they cannot be commoditized here. and i agree with alex that it is late on the i6.0, and they have to deal with the price points, because they are protecting the margins too protectively. >> and the question that people are asking today in particular, on a tape like today in a market where we could see potential downside to the 1905 and is this the place that you want to be or is the tape going to take apple down as well? >> well, you have to be fair. apple traded very well on the
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lousy trade, and traded well on a number of lousy tapes. >> yes, today, too. >> and carl notwithstanding, and the longer here at the level, the more i'm inclined to say that the 88 level is correct which i have been saying all along. the stock has not moved since we started to talk about the 88 level. and if you get to tim's level at 110, and i think that there is a shot at 88, but the longer it stays here, and the market does not give you this long of a period to sell the top. >> and the market has not been selling it well. before yesterday, it had been selling at an average it had not been below for a long time the, and when i look at what mr. icahn has to say, a i don't know how you take the largest cap company in the world, and define the engineering and have a down. >> and you are flagging a number of buybacks as a risk factor for cap names because you don't believe in them, and you say they are not --
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>> well, this is the apple, and when it was fiscal q2 they bought aggressively and that n confidence xwot the street behind them, and guys like icahn can emboldened and the stock has been up since then. and other examples have not been so good. look at cat tractor. in january, they announced a $7 million buyback, and again, accelerate and again in late july, 2.5 billion, and they have bought the shares, and they are massaging the earnings that are not growing organically, because there is no sales growth, there and this company is expecting to have the sales decline this year, and the one point i would make about that cat chart right there, it is round tripped and back to the february levels when they started to buy back the stocks, and that is going to be value destruction if the stock goes much lower, and back to tim's favorite name pepsi here, and you have a split screen here
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to do it right. >> and yes. >> and just reported this morning, and literally a 2% sales growth, and the earnings growth that is respected, and they guided up. i see 2%, but they guided up, and they are buying back the stock aggressively and also pressured by the activists to the split whatever shareholder v value it may unlock, but it is here. it gapped to the all-time high, ap i don't like the names, ibm is in there and a whole host of th them, but that is the next shoe to drop. >> and the buybacks can mask the weak sales numbers, but if you are still perform iing, and the it is not an issue. >> very good point, but at the end of the day, if you are val yug a stock, this is what you value it on the number of shares outstanding versus the earnings, so if you take the stocks out and it is a cheaper and more profitable company, then what is wrong with that? well, your point is that a lot of the companies are trading in multiples they cannot sustain, but pepsi right now that trades in the discount to coke is not over the skis. if you talk about disney, that is a company that the really
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probably needs to prove the multiple even though we know that people are overpaying for the content right now. and so to me, you look at the company and make the call fwoushgs say that the companies that are buying back the stock is not what i believe at all. >> and we have breaking news here. eamon javers is with us with more details. >> i want to talk about the jpmorgan hack, and i am just off of the source familiar with the details, and i can tell you exactly where it stands. first of all, i'm told with the source familiar with the incident that citibank despite the reporting out there was not hit in the hacking incident, and ki report to you that etrade did have some activity related to the jpmorgan hack attack, and some 13 financial institutions that reported some related activity. what that means is that the hackers tried to get into the front door of these financial institution, and 13 of them. it can does not necessarily mean
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that any data was exfiltrated from the institutions, and we don't have a total number of institutions that saw a data loss. so far jpmorgan is the only one who has confirmed data loss, and no indication that it is the russians or any organized foreign government. that is one of the pieces of reporting that has been floating out there, and my source familiar with the incident saying that any reporting that is out there about the putin or anything else is not coming from someone who knows what is going on. and finally, melissa, i can tell you that a little bit of an awkward incident that happened over the weekend between the fbi and some of the large banks. the fbi and the banks have been sharing information, and very much in real time about what happened here going back and forth with the communications to explain to everybody what is known and what is not known, and accidentally, the fbi on saturday sent out some internal fbi information to a broad range of banks and a much broader dissemination list than it
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intended and it had to retract the information and try to grab it back, and what the fbi said in an e-mail to the banks is that the draft information is not intended for dissemination, because it is outdated information and uncorroborated accusations. so they are making sure that only the accurate information is being disseminated. a lot of broad information and misreporting there on this one, and i wanted to give you the details of what we know about this one according to the source close to the incident. melissa? >> thank you, eamon javers. and now, sending the tech trade into a frenzy, and what is going to offer a real buying frenzy? that is next. there was no quesn she was the one.
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>> shares of the tech companies to fight ebola such as chai mer rix and tekmira and auxilium, and what is ironic, meg, to break it down for us, ebola is a small part of what it is about. >> yes, and it is adding so much to the stocks. looking at ki mere rix and tekmira, and $70 million has been added to the market cap there on the two names, and that is a lot on ebola, and some people are saying it might be misplace and news on both of the companies and the shares went the opposite way, because the news was in not ebola. and so tekmira and we saw arrowhead go down a lot on the hepatitis b data, and i was talking to folks who h said, maybe read through to tekmira on
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that, because some folks said that arrowhead would set the bar on the technology for hepatitis b, and tekmira is behind them, and if that disappointed then maybe tekmira's would be as well, but we saw it go up yesterday because of the news in ebola, but chimerix went down, because of the same virus and drug. and so this is going to be dominated by ebola as long as this goes on. >> and so regardless of how significant the drugs are in the pipeline, it is getting to be ebola that runs the stops? >> yes, and it is tekmira that i asked if there should have been an arrowhead read through to tekmira, and some say it makes since, but others say it is not fair, because it is the same technology, but it works differently, but they are all trading up right now. >> and as what is the farthest
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move, and we had the chaimerix, and -- >> well shgs s, it is so hard t from one patient's experience if it is working, and it is being used in another patient in nebraska, and maybe we will get some idea there. again, that is just one patient. and a lot of the companies are participating in the clinical trial consortium in west africa which is going to be what gives us the information. >> thank you, meg. it is funny, because what meg said about the biotech stocks can be applied to other sectors moving on the ebola fears, and whether or not the fear is fact or fiction. >> i think that unfortunately, the headline risk is significant can, and it is going to be better before it is worse, and i am going one too many times for the tekmira. >> better before worse? >> well, the news flow, and i think that it is worth another shot. and probably overplaying the hand here, and we said that it would trade at $30, and it did
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and then we said it would pull back one more time, and it is right here. >> and so, guy, on the night with the big jump, this stock is only going the trade on ebola, and that is how the market works and the traders are thinking that one of the things hits ebola, boom, that thing is up 100% the next day. that is how the market is going to be. >> and with the internet stocks getting hit hard, we have the big names to buy after a big dip after this break.
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wellcome back to "fast money," and we are live at the nasdaq markets. to d today, a big sell off and with we have four ways for you the play defense with the portfolio, and plus one unloved internet name that could be a new safety play. and in a few hours, elon musk is going to make a new tesla announcement. he dropped more hints yesterday. and find out what is coming up. and also, will american airlines going to take a dive? we will go deeper into the airline trade. and today, the vix rising above the key 18 level, it is time to look at how to play defense with the portfolio, and go around the horn to get the best plays. tim? >> well, stress to know what you
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own and the beta of what you own, and the short side or know what the beta is adjusted on a day like today, and that means that if you have a stock to move three times the amount of the underlying market, hedging and thinking a along those lines, and that is is why i talk about the iwm is a good hedge for the eem, because there is a high correlation or the dax. and go back to what is going to be defensive and going to do well in the environment, go with loralorb, and what is happening is that there is pricing power for all of the core player yrs. it plays a handsome dividend, and that i have stakes in companies that is giving them dividends, and it has been a defensive stock for the past few pullbacks in the market. >> dan? >> this is an easy one. you go defensive and go for the yield like tim is mentioning, and go where there is no dollar exposure, and it is yaiis at&t,t is a stock that i bought, and no overseas exposure here sh, and
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putting together some other assets, and this is the one where if you get the stock between $33 and so, you will have a good buy. >> okay. >> i use the approach of balancing the portfolio between the bonds and the equities and use the leverage to up the bond part of it and particularly in the situation. so tlt is the way to play it. i think that in of itself, it has very good things going for it, and you have the interest rate differentials from the rest of the world to bring money into the tlt, and into the u.s. bonds and if the dollar is going high, and you see the flows coming into u.s., that is go g ing to p the tlt and the fed is on hold for a long, long time. >> and the best defense is the good offense. so you have the play the offense here, and look at the name that has worked and a name that worked on the lousy tape today, tad name that has news flow behind it, and go g ing to happ on the symantec flow which is the alto pal low news tomorrow, and that is going to put the
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spotlight fully on the scyber security names. it is a good name to buy, and it continues the to be one. >> all right. the tech stocks getting hit today, and along with the rest of the market, but are there name s names to be bought. and joining us is bob from s trust. and i want to ask you, month to date, and year to date, and that is amazon, and why would you go with that one? >> well, amazon is interesting company, and when you look at the top line and the revenues growing at 22% or so, but the top line there is gross profit, because of the makeshift of the 30% sellers, so the top line of 30%, and the margin is stable, and should rise over the coming quarters and now you are talk about a 50 to 70 times multiple of something growing 30 times plus. and looking at the free cash flow, because they have big flow on the working capital and 30 time
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times the multiple there which is $80 or so, and that is where we are. >> and i know that you are long-term, long-term, but in the name that people will just look past right away? >> yes, that is the point on the beta before, and a lot of my names would be like that, and so we therefore are looking for the pl platforms that are stable, and the long term growth trajectory and facebook, google, and amazon the top-three picks, and so if they -- they do have near term revenue revenues to the point to and future revenue as well. >> and amazon may open up physical stores, and then of course, we get the word today that amazon is going to open the first physical store, and is that making you more bullish or a strategy shift? >> well, i was on a week or so debating herb greenberg on this, and we thought that they should take over radioshack and take over the lease, and use it more for distribution, and a little
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bit of the area where you can show the products, and have the same day delivery where we are go ing today, and have the unlimited catalog right there for consumers. >> amazon and google is the tech to buy on the dip. >> yes, and facebook, and so many revenues they have yet to turn on yet. >> and thank you. and would you agree on the amazon? >> no. but to me amazon is caught between momentum, and not proven to me that it is going to be where you will get the organic growth like facebook and linkedin. >> and can any of the stocks be a safety trade, but relative to each other, and which one would that be? >> i don't think that they can be a safety trade number one, and so that is going to take out number two, that i don't have to answer it. >> got it. >> and i think that baseball can be a safety trade, and so i dis disagree with tim on the amazon, because the way it is trading the way you just asked is that tech is trading awfully, and lower lows and higher highs, and
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print to 285 and maybe we will see his level, but not until then. >> and don't fall uf of the chair, but i sold twitter and i bought it in late julie and-- j and this is the bun i want to buy back on a pullback. >> and so pops and drops and the big movers. we have riverbed technology up 3% after announcing a restructuring plan. guy? >> an gashgs whd when a stock t on a lousy tape, maybe it is a safety turn, and maybe i did not think of it, but maybe this is one for a couple of days at least. >> and a big drop for gap 12% after a number of analyst downgrades. >> well, in is one with a lot of news and it has gone from the 52-week highs to essentially 52-week lows which is bad price action here, and guy, the two or three-day rule here? and i don't know what that means by the way, but -- >> you let the selling
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stocks -- >> not calling. >> and you want to see it literally make a base of $36 and then take a shot on it. >> and what about total down 4%, tim? >> well, the three-month rule suffering from russia and the oil and $60 and big support and dividend and i would own it. >> and how about gold? >> well, it sound likes a lot, but it was up the day before up almost double. and the gold did a thing behind the trade or that tells you why you should buy the gold, and it does apply to the goal mines. >> and elon musk says he has a surprise tonight about tesla tonight, and will it live up to the hype? much more "fast money" straight ahe ahead. go ahead and put your bag right here.
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it is d-day for tesla, the e electric carmaker's ceo elon musk giving some hints of the big announcement he is planning to announce the night. >> and something "d." >> and there is "d" and another thing. >> yes, it is actually, i would have said the other thing, but it would have been too obvious, and that is the reason i didn't say it. >> and what is the letter of the other thing?
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>> well, i can't say. >> and what does the "d" stand for? [ laughter ] the internet is very good at guessing these things, so i understand that directionally correct, but the magnitude is not well appreciated yet. >> joining us now with his take, jack nearad, director of kelley blue book, and good to see you. one analyst note today said whatever the announcement is going to be, good for tesla, because any increase of the skus is going to be good and address the total addressable market, a san diego that good that anything they unveil is going to be good for the sales? >> well wshg it , it is good fo and already good for sales. it is gaining a lot of publicity, and reading the tea leaves to figure out what is being said here, and that is all good for this manufacturer, and
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all of the other news about the car manufacturers is not good, and this is all positive. i think it is going to be positive and i don't know if it is to the magnitude that some are speculating though. >> and the magnitude of what? >> well, the speculation of the all-new vehicle, but car companies can't introduce all new vehicles the wa way that a package good house can or the consumer electronics can, and they don't come bang, bang, bang like that, and my best guess is more of a enhancement of a current vehicle. >> okay. so let's talk about the certified preowned and the spokesperson for tesla indicated in a news article that perhaps certified preowned, and does that cannibalize the future sales when the new tesla come s out or the few current tesla?
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>> well, luxury manufacturers have to deal with the value of the vehicles, and it will affect the new vehicle sales because if the are residuals is low, and the worth of the used vehicles is low, it will make leasing very much more expensive on the new vehicles they are trying to move out of the showrooms, and so it is important to deal with the used vehicles, and it looks like they have a plan to do so. >> jack nerad of kelly blue -- k kelley blue book. and so the stock goes in and they have delivered something that is they have been talking about. >> and that is the tape, and all of the anticipation, and a right for the sell the news event, and in a different tape, tesla would have been making new highs today with the announcement. >> and pete says trade with options, and that is the right way, but trading the long side, 225 is the pivot point and a
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close a week or two ago with trading below 240 and to the point, the tape is a lot higher. >> and no way to justify if valuation, and a guy from the auto industry talking about the comps, and talking about industrial auto company, no way that you trade at this level, 225, and in the tape as the guys say, the stocks in a precarious place. >> what if it is a drone? throwing it out there. just saying. >> just saying. okay. we will see. and the shares of american airlines are down 12% this week, and we will tell you why the stock is about to change direction. that is next. i'm type e.
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american airlines shares down nearly 12% since monday, but one trader is saying it will reverse course, and dan is here with the action. >> i am a here. >> and apparently. >> it is just as important here. and today when the stock was 32.18, and the call volume on the day when the stock was down, and the average day cannily, and the puts 3 to 1 and there was a buyer of 82 cents for 10,000, and also buyers with the sellerres of the november call. and so people were rolling up and out, and when you think of what is going on right now, and
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if you are in an environment, and you forgot the dramamine, and you are throwing up, that plane is going to be diverted here and if you want to make a contrarian bet with the long side on one of the u.s. carriers, you want to define the risk and look out. this is one thing that i did in the united airlines they had better than expected september data, and the stock was up in the opening and so i used the strength to buy a put spread. i am not doing this to incite fea fear, but it is a situation where it is not going to take a whole lot of cases to get the airlines down 5 to 10%. >> and ual had a big move today. >> is and ben just scared me. >> and why? >> dramamine, and mel looked like she needed the air sickness bag. >> and the idea. >> and the domino effect. >> but it is true. >> and it is true, and that is what we were talking about when we were talking about the trading on the fear rather than the actual reality of the situation, and airlines number one. >> and absolutely trading on the fear. and you will get one airline that is diverted by dan is
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talking about, they are down 5% in a heart beet. >> and now, few you are talking about ebola and you think that that there is going to be a lot of e details with one of the analysts who covers the airline, and how you might get the contracted disease, and this is a sector that is a long run, and pick the ones that are valued. >> check out the options action tomorrow morning and we will have the first move tomorrow. stay tuned.
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can you start tomorrow? yes sir. alright. let's share the news tomorrow. today we failrly busy. tomorrow we're booked solid. we close on the house tomorrow. i want one of these opened up. because tomorow we go live... it's a day full of promise. and often, that day arrives by train. big day today? even bigger one tomorrow. when csx trains move forward, so does the rest of the economy. csx. how tomorrow moves. charlie, the demand on this network, it is increasing by the second. it's crazy, huh? and people are relying on it more than ever. we cover more than 99% of all americans. i know, i can't imagine living without it. it's a place where people can come share knowledge and ideas. it's beautiful. that's deep charlie. my selfie just hit a hundred likes...(gasps) a hundred! at&t is building you a better network.
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big sell-off of the markets and taking every sector, and down 2% so far on the day. and first move tomorrow, tim? >>le with, to start this morning you can stay in the trade again, and part of it is technically whether it is trading and valuation and utilization and in the refinery sector, you have maintenance going on and trade it down to 60 and then take a lo look. >> pete? >> first thing tomorrow, if the futures are up, that means more downside and you buy tlt to protect the portfolio. >> and the nasty down from pepsi, and so i am long on the
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puts so take the profits. >> and tonight, i'm in st. louis. >> and symantec, and the profit s are going to be continuing. i'm positive symc. >> and that is all ♪ ♪ my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to on help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to lose less money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and explain what's going on here so call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. what's real? yesterday's humongous rally or today's hideous sell-off, sich

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